Friday, July 16, 2010

Gold Again

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As I begin this post, $GOLD is doing a sky dive from $1205 to $1189.  The number to watch today is anything below $1185, as you will see in the second chart.
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But first, here is the daily chart of GLD.  The good news is that the TSI has risen four consecutive days.  The bad news is the TSI is still below the ZERO crossover and price is still below the 50 dma.  
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This chart takes a look at the Money Flow Index (MFI).  What I have long noticed with gold is that at or near bottoms, MFI tends to spike down to the red 20 line.  This study considers how many trading days GLD has stayed below the 40 level for each daily cycle bottom.  The range for these past 9 cycles has been from zero to a long 15 days.  Currently, we are beginning day 10 with this cycle bottom.
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The good news is that the bottom - based on these observations - should be very near.  The bad news, of course, is that price could still spike lower before the shot clock runs out.  Geez, never easy, huh?
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE
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This is a weekly chart of the past month of $GOLD.  The point is to show you the significance of the $1185 price point for today's trade.  I'm going to put this post on the Internet in a couple minutes.  $GOLD is presently holding the $1190 level and as long as it holds above the $1185 level all day, I think the worst of this bottom should be over.
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If by chance $GOLD does not hold and we spike down, I believe it will be brief and urge you NOT to sell you positions just because of the scare factor.  If I am fortunate to be looking at a computer if we break lower, I will go shopping for miners on sale :)
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Click on the chart to ENLARGE

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